Modelling transmission and control interventions
Work is planned to develop transmission dynamic models of respiratory viruses within the Kenya setting that integrate a spatial component informed by (a) transmission patterns from case surveillance and virus nucleotide sequences, and (b) population flux and demographic structure and dynamics. Model frameworks, such as meta-population or individual based, will be devised as appropriate to reflect data scale and quantity (e.g. countrywide or local; aggregated or individual), mobility data (e.g. mobile phone, transport, time use, GPS tracking and proximity sensing), and intervention modality (e.g. national routine vaccination for target groups, school-based social distancing, and household cocooning).
Collaborators: Matt Keeling